The Ochelli Effect 7-19-2018 Larry Hancock
Despite a few technical issues, a detailed discussion about the current situation between The United States and Russia are explained in this podcast by Author and Historian Larry Hancock. Larry details the many layers of reality at the core of the interactions that preceded the theater of the absurd displays we now see playing out, staring Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The Author provided the best summary before we went to air.
(Pre-Show notes from Larry Hancock)
All countries with any type of diplomatic relations do try to overtly and positively “shape” the other nations image of them, this is relatively passive with basic diplomatic exchanges but can include foreign aid, economic and military assistance and of course trade. When one nation begins to consider another an adversary passive positive shaping moves to deniable, covert influence tactics. This involves the recruitment of agents of influence (either leveraged or simply “useful idiots” in the Russian vernacular). It can involve payments, compromise, blackmail etc, all including some sort of leverage. This is really the second and more aggressive phase of shaping but it lets you know the other nation considers you an adversary. If they really begin to see you as a threat it moves to state 3 and “Containment” where the goal is to neutralize you as a challenge by fragmenting your politics and social structure. If you are internally challenged you won’t be looking externally.
These tactics are all highly deniable and involve psychological and social warfare intended to produce maximum social/racial/ethnic and political discord (chaos). When possible economic stress is added to the mix. If that does not work matters move up to Regime Change, which means placing leadership favorable to you in power and keeping them in power. This involves highly deniable political action, the recruitment and funding of surrogates and everything short of military action. Italy and Iran in the early 1950s are examples for the US; Georgia and Ukraine for the Russian Federation. Finally, if things get bad enough the last phase is Shadow Warfare with arming, funding and full support for paramilitary surrogates – the US tried that with Cuba unsuccessfully; Putin did a far better job on Ukraine.
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